The Australian and US elections have perhaps been in more focus than usual in the UK because of the Iraq war. The Australian election was meant to be the first barometer of public opinion for the political guidemasters to pour over in terms of judging whether the public were for or against the party that led them into conflict. If there had been a huge Aussie backlash against John Howard then the Number 10 spinmeisters would certainly have been worried. As it was, Howard is still in power and the liberal revolution didn't happen over there.

If the Aussie election was the first indicator then the US election result is going to be critical to Blair. If America does vote Bush out then that is a real statement of opinion. Blair's backed Bush every step of the way therefore to see his master ditched out of power will send shivers up the Blair spine. Public opinion drives these people. There's an amusing quote from Simon Hoggart in the Guardian a few years back that seems pertinent:

"I'm often amazed at the way politicians -who spend hours poring over opinion poll results in a desperate attempt to discover what the public thinks- are certain they know precisely what God's views are on everything"

I agree with those who believe that a Kerry victory will be rather Blairlike in the disillusionment it brings. The current Bush regime is Thatcherlike in how the country is: crap healthcare, a lack of work, tax jiggerypokery, a focused stream of public dislike... to ask Kerry to repair all of that within one term is simply asking the impossible. The sad thing is that people think it will change overnight and that is wholy unrealistic. There are foreign ties and internal ties that Bush has ripped up and shat all over, repairing those will take a hell of a long time.

If Kerry doesn't win then I believe the Democrats should look to Edwards for the next Presidential candidate. There's no doubt that he's a well-spoken intelligent individual as is Kerry but he can present himself as the 'easy guy' much better than Kerry, his accent being one part of that easier presentation. I know many would be calling for Hillary Rodham Clinton not least on the ticket of equal opportunities and the importance of having a woman running for high office but I feel the Republican PR guys would tear her apart, there's too much history there.

I'm so angry, how can this happen, are there really so many stupid americans, or is the country just that currupt.

WW3 - the fight for resources grows ever closer.