McCain-Huckabee at some point? or did the more liberal republicans baulk at the idea of having mccain die in office and there being President Huckabee?
At a time of a record defecit it would not be a good sign. A southerner would help McCain sure up the heartlands but he might want to look beyond it.
Huckabee would be on the shortlist but its hard to see what else he brings besides christians and with the Dems planning to make McCain look as much like Bush as possible Christians could end up liking McCain more than they already do.
(Is that good? Hilary seems like a total bitch, but what do I know?*)
Was trying to be all educated and whatnot recently, and heard she'd taken West Virginia (?) and that no president has ever been elected without taking it since 1923 or something, and got all worried, then though ho_fo will know... I'll wait for him to post next on DiS and I'll ask.
By a massive, massive margin as well, something like 80-20 to Hillary. It's very much a blue-collar state, and that's always been Obama's perceived weakness - he just doesn't seem to appeal to the core Democratic vote like she does.
And yes, for about a century every President that has been elected has won WV. But, that's in the electoral college, not the primaries. The Democratic elite are worried because whilst Obama can win more states than Clinton in a hypothetical general election, he can't win the 'big' states, mainly because he doesn't appeal to the blue-collar workers as much. And it's traditionally those bigger swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, that will probably determine the race.
But now Edwards, who the blue-collar workers seem to love even more than Clinton, has endorsed Obama, it should be the final clincher for the remaining super-delegates to back Obama. He IS going to get the nomination, it would tear the party apart if he didn't. It's just his choice of running mate that will become the key issue.
What's the running-mate issue? Would that be for his Vice? Who are the options? Wouldn't Obama be nominating who he wanted as he VP beforehand? Am I thick, James?
Personally, I think the smart money's on Edwards. He was running mate for Kerry last time, though, so that may be seen as a weakness by some party leaders who want to keep up the whole "change" message. They just need to make sure they pick someone who can counter Obama's lack of core appeal, which Edwards would do well at.
Ideally, it would be Clinton for VP, but she'd never, ever stoop to that, I don't think.
I don't know the exact process, but I think the Presidential nominee tells people who he wants as running mate, and then the delegates vote on it as well, but that's really just a matter of formality.
That's what confused me. I assumed whoever didn't win the Democrats Pres nomination would naturally be VP, but like you, couldn't see Hilolry agreeing to that somehow. What with being a total bitch and all.
Besides the fact that Edwards has said he doesn't want to run, he ran in 2004 and brought absolutely nothing to the ticket. He didn't even win his home state. He certainily didn't counter Kerry's lack of strong blue collar appeal. So I don't think he "would do well at" that.
Furthermore there is great pressure on Obama to pick Clinton or someone Clintonesque (someone with a vagina basically). Edwards was even more critical of Clinton than Obama has been. It would only further upset Clinton supporters.
I think Clinton would "stoop" to the Vice Presidency. If only to be the first female Vice President and have that be her legacy. Plus if Obama loses and its largely do to this blue collar problem them Clinton can do an "I told you so" and storm to victory in the 2012 primaries.
Also in an age of terrorism and Obama being very much a JFK/RFK type figure it is entirely possible for him to be a high target for assasination. A VP slot could easily become the path to the Presidency in this day and age.
At any rate she has believed she was owed the Presidency since she became Senator and would at least want to be offered the VP slot if only to turn it down (which I doubt she would).
1) Clinton won 66.99%
Obama won 25.67%
Edwards won 7.33% (his name was still on the ballot)
2) My post below shows how Republican Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush Snr. all won the general election but not West Virginia.
3) Blue collar workers are not automatically tied to big states. West Virginia is a small state with a large blue collar workforce linked to the coal industry. In the North Carolina primary the other week blue collar workers made up a much smaller percentage of the vote despite North Carolina being in the top 10 biggest states.
4) You said that blue collar workers "love" Edwards. However Hillary Clinton won more blue collar workers than Edwards in the races they both properly competed in.
Further more Obama would rather be pushed over the top by his projected win in Oregon (which should win him the overall majority of pledged delegates) instead of some party heavy weights like Edwards coming over to his campaign.
These a primaries to become the nominee for the two parties that will face off in November.
Clinton is saying that she is winning the primaries in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and these are crucial states in the general election, therefore she is the stronger candidate.
This is not the case. If we take John Kerry for example. He won Iowa in the primary but lost it in the general. He lost Vermont in the primary but won it in the gernal. Hillary narrowly won the Texas primary but there is very little chance either democrat could win Texas in the general election.
So this primary is a small state like West Virginia isn't that significant. The trend has been that no Democrat has won the Whitehouse without winning West Virginia in the General election since 1916 (and even then there was only 1% difference in the vote there).
However Democrats won West Virginia in 1952, 1968, 1980 and 1988 and still lost the general election.
You can also say that no Democrat has won the Whitehouse without winning Minnesota in the General election since 1916 (and even then there was only 0.1% difference in the vote there).
Obama won that state's caucus handily on Super Tuesday in February.
Primaries are usually for people registered as Democrats (though it varies from state to state).
Here's where it gets a bit tricky but basically the Democrats and Republicans said to each other, "lets make it so we're really the only two parties in the USA" so when you register to vote you have to say if you're a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent (which basically means 'other'). Your not obligated to register for any party and if you're a registered Republican you can vote for a Democrat and visa versa - hence why many registered Dems who voted for Republicans in the 1980s were called "Reagan Democrats".
In most states if you're registered Democrat you can vote in the Democratic primary and if you're Republican you can vote for the Republican primary and these almost always happen side by side. In some states it doesn't matter what your registered as and you can just turn up and say which you want to vote in like in New Hampshire.
A caucus is more for party activists. People get up and make speeches and in town halls and they say why they're for who they're for and they eliminate candidates who get less than 10% or 15% untill they have a result. Imagine a caucus is something like the DiS staff deciding on the albums of 2007 and a primary is a thread on the music forum.
don't give 'em enough attention they start moaning/having a fit/being arsey/leaking stories to major press. He should've called her Sweet-Tits instead.
How do people register as a Dem or Republican? I think I heard they get it put on their driver's license or something and that further restricts people to poor to afford a car... Might be crap.
I don't even know how I registered to vote in the UK.
I think different states have there own rules. Probably to do with sending off for forms, getting forms, ticking the boxes of Dem, Rep or Ind and sending it back. Voila. You registered. Maybe.
Just seems strange: like imagine in the UK people actively getting themselves officially registered as Labour or Tory before any elections or anything: I'm guessing numbers doing it would be pretty low..
with this whole process. I spent two hours checking out stuff on Chuck Hagel the other day at work when they were bandying about VP candidates, even though, as a (admittedly moderate) Republican, he's clearly a long shot to cross over for the democratic VP slot, even though the rationale behind it would give Obama a huge edge in getting independents and moderate Republicans to vote his way.
Anyway, the whole primary season has been far more enjoyable and fascinating than any football season - I kind of don't want it to end...
'SHE'S BEHIND YOU!' at McCain the way I do whenever HRC is around.
Which is weird, because theoretically I'd totes vote for Hillary over McCain if it came to it....but she just has that pantomime villainous quality that Grandpa lacks
Maybe not yeah? In the likable stakes i think richardon takes it.
My favourite debate lol was Guilliani talking about abortion and then... actually watch the youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibqwKb4cCsg they all join in with the lolz
But I did really think Joe Biden was a great candidate - and would make a great VP as well. Bill Richardson is definitely the most huggable of them, especially since the addition of the beard.
Now, that video - :D. It's only 1.24 long, and concerns abortion. And I'm STILL amazed he didn't crowbar 9/11 into there somehow...
It's weird - I spend more time hovering around, say, The Huffington Post than I do on here or Pitchfork these days. But you're right - the obvious charm of it is the personalities - they're exposed in ways that must be unimaginable even to most whingeing celebs.
Just the thought of it is exhausting, which is why even though I think she's largely brought it on herself, I can feel amazing sympathy for HRC for (presumably) getting knocked out - imagine putting yourself through ALL OF THAT for 15 months and not even being in the hunt for the final prize at the end of it. The crushing disappointment must be incredible....
At least he didn't call her a cunt.
Then he REALLY would've been a sexist chauvinist pig.
perhaps
but it would've been alot funnier
I don't think it would be such an issue
if he wasn't doing pretty badly with women.
Update please ho_fo
Who's going to win?
Obama will be the nominee for the Democrats.
Thats been the case sinse the Ohio and Texas primaries.
I'd say the likelyhood Obama will become the next President is 60%, McCain 40%.
Right now we're having fun guessing who the running mates will be.
i thought it was going to be
McCain-Huckabee at some point? or did the more liberal republicans baulk at the idea of having mccain die in office and there being President Huckabee?
Huckabee doesn't have that good of a fiscal record.
At a time of a record defecit it would not be a good sign. A southerner would help McCain sure up the heartlands but he might want to look beyond it.
Huckabee would be on the shortlist but its hard to see what else he brings besides christians and with the Dems planning to make McCain look as much like Bush as possible Christians could end up liking McCain more than they already do.
Aaaah, good
(Is that good? Hilary seems like a total bitch, but what do I know?*)
Was trying to be all educated and whatnot recently, and heard she'd taken West Virginia (?) and that no president has ever been elected without taking it since 1923 or something, and got all worried, then though ho_fo will know... I'll wait for him to post next on DiS and I'll ask.
(* absolutely nothing)
She did take West Virginia
By a massive, massive margin as well, something like 80-20 to Hillary. It's very much a blue-collar state, and that's always been Obama's perceived weakness - he just doesn't seem to appeal to the core Democratic vote like she does.
And yes, for about a century every President that has been elected has won WV. But, that's in the electoral college, not the primaries. The Democratic elite are worried because whilst Obama can win more states than Clinton in a hypothetical general election, he can't win the 'big' states, mainly because he doesn't appeal to the blue-collar workers as much. And it's traditionally those bigger swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, that will probably determine the race.
But now Edwards, who the blue-collar workers seem to love even more than Clinton, has endorsed Obama, it should be the final clincher for the remaining super-delegates to back Obama. He IS going to get the nomination, it would tear the party apart if he didn't. It's just his choice of running mate that will become the key issue.
Thanks <3
What's the running-mate issue? Would that be for his Vice? Who are the options? Wouldn't Obama be nominating who he wanted as he VP beforehand? Am I thick, James?
Well
Personally, I think the smart money's on Edwards. He was running mate for Kerry last time, though, so that may be seen as a weakness by some party leaders who want to keep up the whole "change" message. They just need to make sure they pick someone who can counter Obama's lack of core appeal, which Edwards would do well at.
Ideally, it would be Clinton for VP, but she'd never, ever stoop to that, I don't think.
I don't know the exact process, but I think the Presidential nominee tells people who he wants as running mate, and then the delegates vote on it as well, but that's really just a matter of formality.
Aaaah I see
That's what confused me. I assumed whoever didn't win the Democrats Pres nomination would naturally be VP, but like you, couldn't see Hilolry agreeing to that somehow. What with being a total bitch and all.
The stupid money is on Edwards.
Besides the fact that Edwards has said he doesn't want to run, he ran in 2004 and brought absolutely nothing to the ticket. He didn't even win his home state. He certainily didn't counter Kerry's lack of strong blue collar appeal. So I don't think he "would do well at" that.
Furthermore there is great pressure on Obama to pick Clinton or someone Clintonesque (someone with a vagina basically). Edwards was even more critical of Clinton than Obama has been. It would only further upset Clinton supporters.
I think Clinton would "stoop" to the Vice Presidency. If only to be the first female Vice President and have that be her legacy. Plus if Obama loses and its largely do to this blue collar problem them Clinton can do an "I told you so" and storm to victory in the 2012 primaries.
Also in an age of terrorism and Obama being very much a JFK/RFK type figure it is entirely possible for him to be a high target for assasination. A VP slot could easily become the path to the Presidency in this day and age.
At any rate she has believed she was owed the Presidency since she became Senator and would at least want to be offered the VP slot if only to turn it down (which I doubt she would).
You're wrong on4 points here.
1) Clinton won 66.99%
Obama won 25.67%
Edwards won 7.33% (his name was still on the ballot)
2) My post below shows how Republican Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush Snr. all won the general election but not West Virginia.
3) Blue collar workers are not automatically tied to big states. West Virginia is a small state with a large blue collar workforce linked to the coal industry. In the North Carolina primary the other week blue collar workers made up a much smaller percentage of the vote despite North Carolina being in the top 10 biggest states.
4) You said that blue collar workers "love" Edwards. However Hillary Clinton won more blue collar workers than Edwards in the races they both properly competed in.
Further more Obama would rather be pushed over the top by his projected win in Oregon (which should win him the overall majority of pledged delegates) instead of some party heavy weights like Edwards coming over to his campaign.
To be clear
These a primaries to become the nominee for the two parties that will face off in November.
Clinton is saying that she is winning the primaries in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and these are crucial states in the general election, therefore she is the stronger candidate.
This is not the case. If we take John Kerry for example. He won Iowa in the primary but lost it in the general. He lost Vermont in the primary but won it in the gernal. Hillary narrowly won the Texas primary but there is very little chance either democrat could win Texas in the general election.
So this primary is a small state like West Virginia isn't that significant. The trend has been that no Democrat has won the Whitehouse without winning West Virginia in the General election since 1916 (and even then there was only 1% difference in the vote there).
However Democrats won West Virginia in 1952, 1968, 1980 and 1988 and still lost the general election.
You can also say that no Democrat has won the Whitehouse without winning Minnesota in the General election since 1916 (and even then there was only 0.1% difference in the vote there).
Obama won that state's caucus handily on Super Tuesday in February.
(Thank you for taking the time to explain this, seriously)
:)
(no problem, I love it)
:)
i've missed american politics threads <3
i've been reading up on it all night
80% sure it'll be Sebelius
I suspect Obama's odds will get a lot better once people outside the high-information bracket start associating McCain with Bush.
I thought Ohio was a caucus?
You were mistaken.
yep
Thinking of Iowa
Right, now what's a caucus?
Basically
with a caucus the delegates are decided by everybody standing in a big hall and going to a certain corner for a certain candidate. SERIOUSLY.
A primary decides it with ballots, like a normal sane election.
I think Obama did better in the caucuses, coz noone wants to OPENLY admit they want Shrillary Clinton
^yeah
Primaries are usually for people registered as Democrats (though it varies from state to state).
Here's where it gets a bit tricky but basically the Democrats and Republicans said to each other, "lets make it so we're really the only two parties in the USA" so when you register to vote you have to say if you're a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent (which basically means 'other'). Your not obligated to register for any party and if you're a registered Republican you can vote for a Democrat and visa versa - hence why many registered Dems who voted for Republicans in the 1980s were called "Reagan Democrats".
In most states if you're registered Democrat you can vote in the Democratic primary and if you're Republican you can vote for the Republican primary and these almost always happen side by side. In some states it doesn't matter what your registered as and you can just turn up and say which you want to vote in like in New Hampshire.
A caucus is more for party activists. People get up and make speeches and in town halls and they say why they're for who they're for and they eliminate candidates who get less than 10% or 15% untill they have a result. Imagine a caucus is something like the DiS staff deciding on the albums of 2007 and a primary is a thread on the music forum.
y'know what women are like.
don't give 'em enough attention they start moaning/having a fit/being arsey/leaking stories to major press. He should've called her Sweet-Tits instead.
i started this thread
and now feel to dumb to contribute :D
I'm not smart
I'm just obsessed with this shizzle. Borderline autistic is my bet.
^Quick Q I've always wondered about
How do people register as a Dem or Republican? I think I heard they get it put on their driver's license or something and that further restricts people to poor to afford a car... Might be crap.
I hoped I wasn't going to be asked this.
I don't even know how I registered to vote in the UK.
I think different states have there own rules. Probably to do with sending off for forms, getting forms, ticking the boxes of Dem, Rep or Ind and sending it back. Voila. You registered. Maybe.
Yeah sorry bit of a nit-picky question
Just seems strange: like imagine in the UK people actively getting themselves officially registered as Labour or Tory before any elections or anything: I'm guessing numbers doing it would be pretty low..
Maybe the Tories
could be officially registered by simply getting a Boris Johnson blond haircut? ;)
Why not just nose measurements?
Perfect
But you're forgetting that Jews historically tend to vote very liberally
O RLY?
http://tinyurl.com/58d95w
So good
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1wSZBTAXRs
American News Coverage
is ridiculous. Pantomine. Although thinking about Paxman's underwear... Wait, that sounded bad
Thats pretty bad. But funny.
I <3 Chris Matthews so so so so much.
Have you seen that vintage clip of Bill O'Reilly having a meltdown?
It's like an outtake from Anchorman or something...angry, angry man
http://tinyurl.com/65ezgd
Thats BUSH! BUSH LEAGUE!
HAHHAHAHA
This is unbelievable
hahaha, what a knob :D
I'm baffled and slightly embarrassed about just how obssessed I've become
with this whole process. I spent two hours checking out stuff on Chuck Hagel the other day at work when they were bandying about VP candidates, even though, as a (admittedly moderate) Republican, he's clearly a long shot to cross over for the democratic VP slot, even though the rationale behind it would give Obama a huge edge in getting independents and moderate Republicans to vote his way.
Anyway, the whole primary season has been far more enjoyable and fascinating than any football season - I kind of don't want it to end...
Yeah but after the primaries...
you've got the main course!
Yes, but I just don't feel like screaming
'SHE'S BEHIND YOU!' at McCain the way I do whenever HRC is around.
Which is weird, because theoretically I'd totes vote for Hillary over McCain if it came to it....but she just has that pantomime villainous quality that Grandpa lacks
Yeah she's really messed with Obama's head
Here he claims to have visited 57 states with just one more to go!
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/barackobamavideos/youtube/obama-57-states.htm
Hagel could lose Obama Democrats on the left.
Lucien. It doesn't really go away. I got into all of this in early 2004. Its so intresting for so many reasons.
I hate the republicans so I have a vested interest in seeing dems do well.
Its based so much more on individual candidates strengths and weakness. Personalities drive politics in the US.
Just the statitics are so immense its a number crunchers dream. If you like that kind of thing check this site out: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
PS
It never ends. Joe Biden said he would seek the 2008 Democratic nomination less than two weeks after John Kerry lost in 2004.
Joe Biden is definitely the most likeable of the original Dem candidates
His one-liners in the early debates are sometimes stand-up comedian worthy
Hmmmmmmmmm
Maybe not yeah? In the likable stakes i think richardon takes it.
My favourite debate lol was Guilliani talking about abortion and then... actually watch the youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibqwKb4cCsg they all join in with the lolz
I think likeable is the wrong word
But I did really think Joe Biden was a great candidate - and would make a great VP as well. Bill Richardson is definitely the most huggable of them, especially since the addition of the beard.
Now, that video - :D. It's only 1.24 long, and concerns abortion. And I'm STILL amazed he didn't crowbar 9/11 into there somehow...
:D
Biden is gaff prone though
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcX_xfuivbs
Cool!
It's weird - I spend more time hovering around, say, The Huffington Post than I do on here or Pitchfork these days. But you're right - the obvious charm of it is the personalities - they're exposed in ways that must be unimaginable even to most whingeing celebs.
Just the thought of it is exhausting, which is why even though I think she's largely brought it on herself, I can feel amazing sympathy for HRC for (presumably) getting knocked out - imagine putting yourself through ALL OF THAT for 15 months and not even being in the hunt for the final prize at the end of it. The crushing disappointment must be incredible....
She's coveted the job since Clinton's re-election in 1996.
Clintons comeback though.
oh my god
thats made me fancy him a bit
It was probably a moment like when
you accidentally call your teacher 'Dad'